Midterm Stakes: Control of Congress and the 2028 Path

Voters across the Southeast are heading to the polls on Tuesday to decide who controls the U.S. House and Senate for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term. The Associated Press describes the election as a referendum on the president's performance, with many citizens expressing concern over high prices and the ongoing conflict with Iran. According to Ballotpedia, all 435 House seats are on the ballot. Republicans currently hold 218 seats, while Democrats hold 214. Democrats need a net gain of three districts to secure a majority, whereas Republicans can afford to lose no more than two seats. The AP notes that Republicans have been bracing for potential losses in the House while fighting to maintain their Senate majority.

In the Senate, 35 seats are up for election. Republicans hold 53 seats, and Democrats hold 45, along with two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats require a net gain of four seats to take control, while Republicans can lose only two. Ballotpedia identifies 13 Senate races as battlegrounds, including contests in Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio. In Georgia, incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Republican Rep. Mike Collins. In North Carolina, Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper challenges Republican Michael Whatley in an open seat following the retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis. The AP reports that economic strain and tariffs have made states like Maine and Michigan competitive, where voters are weighing the impact of national policies on their local economies.

Control of the House will determine the trajectory of investigations and oversight in the coming months. If Democrats capture the majority, House Leader Hakeem Jeffries would become the first Black speaker of the House. Jeffries has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on the cost of living and oversight of the executive branch. The AP notes that if Democrats win even one chamber, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings become likely. This scenario could also complicate the path for Vice President JD Vance, while potentially boosting the profiles of 2028 Democratic candidates such as Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg. Republicans are trying to break the traditional midterm pattern of losing seats, but new congressional maps in states like Florida and North Carolina may not vote as drawn.

State-level races in the Southeast are equally critical, with voters deciding who will lead their states for the next four years. In Georgia, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. for both the Senate and the open governor's seat. Republican health care executive Rick Jackson is running against Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms for the governorship. In North Carolina, polls open at 6:30 a.m. and close at 7:30 p.m. for the open Senate seat, though there is no governor's race on the ballot this cycle. In South Carolina, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. for the Senate race, where incumbent Darline Graham is seeking reelection, and the open governor's seat. In Tennessee, polling hours vary by county for the Senate race involving incumbent Bill Hagerty and the open governor's seat.

Voters in Florida, where polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., are deciding the open governor's seat. The AP identifies Texas, Florida, and Iowa as competitive governor races. In Alabama, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. for the open Senate seat and the open governor's seat. Mississippi voters can cast ballots from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. for the Senate race, where incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is running for reelection. The AP notes that Republicans have held a majority of governorships since 2010. Democrats would need a net gain of two governorships to achieve a nationwide majority, a goal they are pursuing for the first time in two decades. Many Republican candidates are keeping a distance from the president, who held dozens of rallies leading up to the election.

The mood among voters is mixed, with the AP-NORC poll showing that 35 percent of U.S. adults approve of Trump's job performance. Only 25 percent approve of his handling of the economy, and about seven in ten say the country is heading in the wrong direction. Most respondents blame the president for high prices. More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing early vote totals from four years ago in many closely watched states. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters stated that everything depends on turnout, emphasizing that if Republicans turn out their voters, they win. Conversely, DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene said the American people are angry and want change.

In Georgia, the race between Ossoff and Collins is closely watched, with the state leaning Democratic according to race ratings. In North Carolina, the open Senate seat is a key battleground, with Cooper and Whatley competing in a state that voted for Trump by 3.3 points in 2024. In South Carolina, Darline Graham is defending her seat in a state that voted for Trump by 13.1 points, though the governor's race is also in play. In Tennessee, Bill Hagerty is running for reelection in a state that voted for Trump by 19.9 points in the presidential race. In Alabama and Mississippi, the open and incumbent Senate seats respectively are part of a broader effort by Republicans to hold their majority in the chamber.

The Associated Press notes that the 2026 elections are likely to be the most expensive in history. Republican committees have outraised and outspent Democratic committees, aided by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats have outraised their opponents. Analysis of AdImpact data by the AP shows that 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts that Trump won in 2024. This includes more than $850 million in states where he won by 10 points or more. The spending reflects a strategy to protect strongholds while attacking vulnerable districts in the House.