Voters Decide $850 Million Republican Bet on Trump's Second Term

Voters facing high prices and an unpopular war with Iran will determine Tuesday whether power in Washington shifts drastically. The midterm election serves as a direct referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term. The outcome will dictate the balance of power in Congress for the final two years of his presidency.

The election has become the most expensive in history. Republican committees have dramatically outraised and outspent Democratic counterparts. This spending advantage stems largely from funds provided by Trump-affiliated groups and tech billionaire Elon Musk. However, Democratic candidates have outraised their Republican opponents at the individual level.

Republican television ad spending concentrated heavily in areas Trump previously won. An Associated Press analysis of AdImpact data shows 88.1% of Republican general election TV spending targeted states and districts Trump carried in 2024. This included more than $850 million in ad reservations in locations where Trump won by 10 points or more.

Democrats are cautiously optimistic about their chances. They argue that voter discontent over rising costs will depress Republican turnout. Democrats also believe perceptions that Trump focuses on Washington rather than the cost of gas and groceries will drive their supporters to the polls. Republicans counter that their financial advantage will stem the tide, though they brace to lose the House.

Polling data indicates a souring electorate. Only 35% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s performance, according to the latest AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey. Just 25% approve of his handling of the economy. Approximately 70% of adults say the country is heading in the wrong direction.

More than 57 million people had already cast ballots as of Monday. Turnout has surpassed early vote levels from four years ago in many closely watched states. Trump urged voters to act as if he were on the ballot. He made this request at a rally in Salina, Kansas, on Sunday evening.

Key Senate races will determine control of the chamber. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the majority. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage. Democrats are most confident in North Carolina and Georgia. In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Rep. Mike Collins. In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper challenges Michael Whatley. In the House, Democrats need only three net seats to flip control.

The results will shape the final two years of Trump’s second term. If Democrats take control of one chamber, they can open investigations and potential impeachments. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Elon Musk are among possible targets. If Republicans retain the Senate, they can act as a backstop for presidential priorities. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on lowering the cost of living if his party wins the House.