Lula returns to Brazilian presidency

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term as Brazil's president in the early hours of October 26, 2026. The Workers' Party leader captured 51.79% of the vote, defeating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who received 48.21%. The margin amounted to roughly 4.3 million votes among the nation's 159 million eligible voters.

The victory marked a sharp reversal from the first round held earlier this month. Flávio Bolsonaro had led that initial ballot with 56.1 million votes to Lula's 53.8 million. Since democracy returned to Brazil in 1985, no candidate who placed second in the first round had ever won the final runoff. Polls tightened in the weeks between elections, with the gap narrowing to fractions of a percentage point.

Lula credited a digital mobilization strategy for the turnaround. Millions of supporters joined a WhatsApp group known as "Lula's army," which coordinated daily efforts to spread supportive content. The 80-year-old president, who recently adopted a smartphone, began posting on Instagram and TikTok. His digital reach surpassed that of his opponent for the first time during the campaign.

The Bolsonaro campaign faced internal challenges and external scrutiny. The magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party in 2020 with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists. Additionally, a dozen watchdog groups alleged that Meta favored the Bolsonaro campaign on social platforms. Brazil's electoral court ordered Meta to prevent unequal treatment of candidates, while the company dismissed the claims as unfounded.

International dynamics also influenced the race. President Donald Trump called the trial of Jair Bolsonaro a witch hunt and imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Lula positioned himself as a counterweight to what he termed colonial designs, pursuing a foreign policy that balanced ties with the United States, China, and Russia. He also declined an invitation to join a Latin American military coalition against drug cartels.

The election outcome has implications for environmental policy. Under Lula's previous administrations, Amazon deforestation fell by more than 70%. His government has also supported Indigenous rights and cracked down on illegal mining. However, he must now navigate a newly elected congress featuring a record number of right-wing politicians who are often hostile to those environmental causes.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede the result, citing the decision to extend voting hours by two hours. He described it as impossible to accept the outcome, though both campaigns had requested the extension for different reasons. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.