Eisenkot Coalition Requires Arab Partnership to Secure 61 Seats

Preliminary results from Israel's elections commission released Wednesday indicate that neither the ruling Likud bloc nor the opposition Yashar list will command a majority on its own. The data places the threshold for government formation at 61 seats in the Knesset. Local media projections assign 53 seats to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and its centrist partners are projected to hold 48 seats. Arab-led parties are estimated to capture 19 seats.

To reach the required 61 seats, Eisenkot's bloc must secure the support of the Arab parties. Netanyahu and many Likud members have historically ruled out such a partnership. Eisenkot has signaled openness to the arrangement. The Joint List of Arab parties, led by Yousef Jabareen, is calling for a true and equal Jewish-Arab partnership to end Netanyahu's government. This potential alliance creates a structural risk for Eisenkot. He may lose support from right-wing members of his coalition if he partners with parties he considers less aligned with his core base.

Yashar has set specific conditions for the Arab parties to join the coalition. They must publicly affirm that Israel is a Jewish and democratic state guided by the declaration of independence. The parties must also state that Hamas is a terrorist organization that should be disarmed and demolished. Additionally, they must support ending the military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews and Palestinian citizens of Israel. Lian Polak-David, a Yashar candidate, told the Associated Press on Tuesday night that no ultra-Orthodox or Arab party currently supports all four of these principles.

Time is a critical factor in the negotiations. If the parties cannot reach an agreement quickly, Israel faces the prospect of a second round of elections. Thousands of citizens who traveled to Israel to vote in the first round may be unable to return for a subsequent vote. Arab parties are also likely to see lower turnout in a future election. Eisenkot addressed the urgency from a podium in Tel Aviv on Tuesday night. He stated that the imperative of the hour is to unite the people swiftly.

Eisenkot, 66, rose from a working-class background to lead the military for four decades. His son, Gal Meir Eisenkot, 25, was killed in combat in Gaza. Two of his nephews who were deployed to combat also died in the war. These personal losses have shaped his political profile. He is seen as a leader who has paid a high price and will not needlessly sacrifice soldiers. His platform includes a state inquiry into the failures leading to the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023. He also advocates for legislation mandating that ultra-Orthodox Jews serve in the military.

The opposition seeks to hold Netanyahu accountable for the events of October 7 and for failing to convert battlefield victories into diplomatic achievements. Netanyahu has long refused a state inquiry. Eisenkot supports Israeli military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. He wants to reduce tensions in the West Bank and follow the plan for Gaza proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. He supports settlements but says he would evacuate unauthorized settler outposts. These outposts are cited by rights groups as a primary driver of violence against Palestinians.

Eisenkot is credited with formulating the Dahiyeh Doctrine. This military strategy advocates the use of disproportionate power against any entity that fires on Israel. The doctrine is named after an area in Beirut's southern suburbs where Hezbollah has a stronghold. Eisenkot joined Netanyahu's war cabinet as an observer after the October 7 attacks. He resigned in June 2024. In his resignation letter, he wrote that Netanyahu was allowing politics to influence decision-making, which harmed Israel's ability to achieve its war goals.

The election took place on Tuesday. Initial exit polls suggested a major loss for Netanyahu, prompting Eisenkot to declare that millions of Israelis had had enough of the culture of lies. Preliminary counts on Wednesday show Netanyahu's party pulling ahead but without a clear majority. The next step is the coalition math. Eisenkot's path to the prime minister's office depends on closing the gap of 13 seats through a partnership with the Arab-led lists.