Wisconsin voters face a 1982-style election with a $3 billion surplus

Wisconsin voters will head to the polls this November facing a slate of state races that closely mirrors the political landscape of 1982. Both election cycles feature contests for governor, attorney general, and full control of the state Legislature following the retirement of incumbent leaders. The state also presents voters with a choice on constitutional amendments in both years.

The 2026 gubernatorial race pits Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley against U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany. This setup parallels the 1982 contest between Democrat Tony Earl and Republican Terry Kohler. In 1982, Earl ran as a lawyer and former state official, while Kohler was a business executive entering the race after one-term Governor Lee S. Dreyfus announced his retirement. Kohler told reporters he was walking in the footsteps of his father and grandfather.

A primary economic difference separates the two cycles. In 1982, the state faced a post-recession deficit that Earl claimed reached $1.5 billion. He argued that a tax increase would likely be necessary to balance the books. Kohler disputed those figures and pledged a no-tax-increase budget if elected. Today, the state government holds a $3 billion budget surplus. Despite the improved fiscal position, the debate over job creation remains central to the current campaign.

The attorney general race also draws direct comparisons. In 1982, Democrat Bronson La Follette won re-election and became the first statewide candidate to secure more than one million votes. This year, Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul faces a second challenge from Fond du Lac District Attorney Eric Toney. Toney lost a narrow race against Kaul four years ago and is seeking the office again.

Legislative control is at stake in both 1982 and 2026. In 1982, Democrats maintained their 19-14 majority in the state Senate and their 59-40 hold on the Assembly. This year, Democrats hope to flip two or more Senate seats from Republican control, which would give them the upper chamber for the first time since 1990. They are also attempting to gain a majority in the 99-member Assembly after 16 years in the minority.

Voters will also decide on three proposed constitutional amendments drafted by Republicans. This echoes the 1982 election, where voters approved nine such amendments. A key structural difference remains in federal representation. In 1982, Democrat William Proxmire won his fifth Senate term, defeating Republican Scott McCallum by a margin of 63 percent to 34 percent. There is no U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin this year.

The current legislative map has shifted significantly since the 1982 election. Democrats then held five of Wisconsin’s nine House seats. Republicans now hold six of the state’s eight seats. The number of House seats decreased by one following the 1990 Census.

Historical records show that the 1982 election was decided by a wide margin. Earl defeated Kohler with 56 percent of the vote to 42 percent. That result stands in contrast to recent statewide elections, which are frequently decided by margins of less than one percent. The sales tax rate set in 1982 at 5 percent remains the state rate today, though local governments have since added surtaxes and wheel taxes.

The political environment in 1982 was marked by a recession that pushed unemployment to record highs. Frank Ryan, a Capitol reporter for United Press International, noted that Kohler blamed government spending and restrictions on business for the downturn. Ryan observed that Kohler, a wealthy Sheboygan businessman, claimed he was the only candidate who had ever created a job. Today, the discourse remains focused on the economy, but the background of a national recession is no longer present.