Democrats Target Narrow House Majority Ahead of Nov. 3 Vote

The 2026 midterm election takes place on Nov. 3.

Current spending data suggests the primary question in the House race is no longer whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many they will take. Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 majority. The latest Cook Political Report ratings favor Democrats in 220 seats, list 17 as toss-ups, and place another 30 as potentially competitive but leaning Republican.

A recent analysis found 70 districts where both parties are spending at least six figures each on closing messaging. Toss-up districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York and Florida are each drawing more than $10 million. Seven-figure ad buys have appeared in strongly Republican areas of Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Late resources are also flowing to districts where Republican-led gerrymandering could backfire.

Many districts that were closely contested in the 2024 presidential cycle have moved toward Democrats. This includes 10 seats that backed one party's presidential candidate and the other party's House nominee. These seats are held by Democratic Reps. Adam Gray of California, Nellie Pou of New Jersey and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez of Washington. The seat of retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska is also included. AdImpact data shows Republicans have cut ad reservations in all four districts in recent weeks.

The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll gives Democrats a 10-point advantage among registered voters. Democrats also hold an 8-point edge among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. Cost of living remains voters' top concern. Rising gas prices, tariffs and the ongoing war in Iran are adding to economic strain. A record number of congressional retirement announcements and an anti-incumbent mood in primaries have also shaped the contest.

Mid-decade redistricting has further reshaped the map following a Supreme Court decision that rolled back more of the Voting Rights Act. Republicans redrew lines to add conservative voters to districts held by Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, Don Davis of North Carolina, Shomari Figures of Alabama and Darren Soto of Florida. Democrats did the same in California, targeting districts held by Republican Reps. James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert and Darrell Issa, and independent Kevin Kiley. Only Figures' and Soto's districts are now rated as favoring Republicans.

Millions of voters have already cast ballots. Dozens of races are drawing heavy late investment. Michigan's 7th and North Carolina's 1st districts are the most expensive, with more than $12 million planned in each. Other high-cost races include Florida's 14th, 22nd and 25th districts, New York's 17th district, and Iowa's 2nd and 3rd districts. Spending also reaches Republican-redrawn seats such as Alabama's 2nd and Tennessee's 9th districts. It also covers districts Trump won by more than 10 points in 2024, such as Kentucky's 6th and Arkansas' 2nd. The 70 districts with six-figure spending from both parties voted for Trump by an average of 9 points in 2024.